Welcome to the future. There’s a lot of talk about “change” these days—isn’t there? But this time—this wave of change—is like never before. It’s a time when all of the domains of civilization are changing at the same time, from technology to politics to economics.
It's a turbo-charged period of change we call “compressional acceleration”—a pace of technological change that makes the last 10 years feel like the equivalent of the previous 100. Thus, it makes a single lifetime feel like an 800 year journey through time.
Imagine.
We’d get to meet King Louis XVI and Queen Marie Antoinette plus witness the inventions of the year 2,500—all before we find our mortal shells six feet under.
CC andrew abogado
What to do?
We can think more about how we think. Ironically, it's not about technology. Rather, it's about what technology has done to and is doing to us, and how we cope with and leverage it.
It's about our mindset. Industrial era operational mindsets no longer cut it. It’s a time to be smarter, more flexible and mobile. It’s a time for creativity, ideas, creation and innovation.
It's a good time to be... well, a bit of a Screwball.
Screwballs are good
The screwball pitch changed the game of baseball
Screwball comedies in the 1930′s effectively addressed social issues, and helped us navigate the emotions of the Great Depression
Screwballs are eccentric, eclectic and multi-talented
Screwballism should be spread
The world needs Screwball-ness
Who are some of the thinkers thinking about thinking different about the future?
Sue and I have had the same wireless carrier for a zillion years (Okay, maybe not a zillion years—but a long time). Through the years, we’ve had all kinds of voice and data plans. Overall, we’ve been satisfied. However, there’s a thorn in our side recently; It’s something we like to call the “limited unlimited” data plan.
[Photo:Abdulla Al Muhairi - CC]
You see, the carrier no longer offers unlimited data plans for smartphones—but the unlimited plan we currently possess is grandfathered—and we like having it.
Here’s the rub: In recent months, we've been receiving warning notices informing us that if we continue at our current usage rate, performance will degrade (and it does). At first, these wrist-slapping messages occurred at 5GB. Now we receive them at 3GB. Obviously they’d like us to move to a plan that makes more sense for them.
Scarcity:
One can understand how this happens. If data and data networks were limitless and free everywhere—we wouldn’t be having this discussion. But they’re not free and limitless resources. And, after all, it’s this kind of supply-demand continuum that makes the world go ‘round—right? It keeps the economy humming. It allows wireless companies to be in business. The wireless companies provide people with jobs. Jobs allow people to pay for the things they want (such as data services on their smartphones) etc.
But is it possible that at times this dynamic causes an unnatural exchange of “value” between humans? Is it possible that the aforementioned value-trading dynamic is a function of scarcity—or at least a scarce mindset in our society?
Perhaps.
Consider a favorite restaurant—a place where you dine frequently. Imagine that when your patronage increases, food and service quality automatically decreases proportional to the rate of your increased patronage. Would that make sense?
Money:
Money has been around for thousands of years, so it's hard to imagine a world without it.
[Photo: 401K's Photostream - CC]
But a world without money did exist. In fact, modern humans have been around for about 50,000 years—much longer than money. So, as hard as it is to imagine, it’s safe to say that money has been not-around more than it has been around. Further, there are non-money systems in existence today, such as food-sharing systems within certain hunter-gatherer societies, there are “gift societies” and there is a reemergence of various barter systems.
But of course, all systems of any kind have their pros and cons. For example, Wikipedia will tell you, "Bartering has several problems; most notably that it requires a "coincidence of wants'". However, our amazing hyper-connectivity these days makes coincidences-of-wants more coincidental & connected than ever before—witness Collaborative Consumption.
It’s provocative to imagine for a moment that maybe these certain funny shaped tokens, paper with symbols, or sequences of bits on a computer screen (i.e., money) might represent an out-moded arcane mechanism that’s been necessary for several thousand years simply because we had no other practical alternative.
But maybe now we do.
Abundance:
Again consider the basics of our current system:
Some human (or humans) control one thing and keep that thing from others human(s) until said other human(s) pay for that thing. In turn, said other human(s) who just paid for the thing happen to control some other thing and keep that other thing from other other human(s)—until the other other human(s) cough up some hard cash for the other thing that the other human(s) control—and so on.
Scarcity.
Ironic. Popular language these days includes terms like “collaboration”, “community”, and “teamwork”. What meeting do you attend where you don’t hear those (or similar) words? Yet, just about everything we do in society comes down to keeping something from someone else until they pay for it, usually with money.
What would happen if things were more abundant (Or if we thought more abundantly)?
For example, the Sun is rather abundant, and generally speaking, humans don’t trade shares of sunbathing-units as a commodity traded on a stock exchange. Nor do we pay anyone for the experience of feeling the Sun on our face when we walk outdoors.
If food, data, or energy were limitless, maybe we wouldn't have our wrists slapped at 3GB. Maybe we wouldn’t have to pay for such things at all.
I know—unrealistic and idealistic—right?
Or is it?
Nikola Tesla
Consider this:
Over 100 years ago, Nikola Tesla had a viable strategy for producing perpetually available energy for everyone everywhere
Physics tells us that energy never “goes away”
The Sun showers the Earth with 5,000 times the energy we need every single day
Tesla couldn't fully bring his vision to fruition in large part because others wanted to make boat loads of money.
Regardless: Perhaps there are more alternatives available to us than we think. Or at least, perhaps, we need to start thinking a bit differently about how we think about these things.
The definitions of how and where we live, and why - are on the fly.
When I grew up in suburban Cleveland during the 60's and 70's, life was ideal. Surreal ideal. I was an only child (still am). My earliest memories are of a new brick ranch style home - and then a modern split-level.
In my early teens, I tore-up the neighborhood on my banana bike or skateboard, and then graduated to a 10-speed. I had a hamster named Adam (survived by our sweet little dog who's name I won't divulge for self-centric masculinity reasons).
There were backyard fridge-box adventures (gosh, those were the best) and of course there were "my woods" - i.e., wild nature just down the street for my best friend Jeff and me to explore (until, of course, the trees came down so a K-Mart could go up). Heck, we can't all just run around in the woods - we have to buy stuff, right?
A remnant of "My Woods" - A piece of tree taken away - to make way - for K-Mart :-(
We had a TV that looked more like a French Provincial desk than a box of electronics. Outside of the weekly thrill of watching the trash being picked up, the real "main event" was the occasion when humans actually came to our house to fix the desk/TV unit.
Lucky for me, outside of watching a show or two, my Mom, Dad & I talked more than we watched.
Growing up, I learned about the twentieth century dream, which made perfect sense to everyone at that time: School--> More school--> Job --> Better Job --> House --> Bigger House --> Maybe even a Bigger-er house --> Retire.
If one used his/her head, and worked hard, it all worked out.
But not any more.
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Welcome to the 21st century
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As Richard Florida outlines in The Great Reset ...we're living midst an historic reset where the definitions of "work", "play", and "home" are changing forever.
In The Great Reset, Florida explains that we've been through similar economic "resets", and that each one of them have had a major impact on where we live and work. In the 1870's (The "Long Depression") the big shift was rural to urban. After the 1930's (The Great Depression) we experienced the big shift from urban to suburban.
Now, we're experiencing the "mega-regions", where small struggling cities & regions become integrated with larger multi city metropolises. One such mega-region, the so-called Bos-Wash (A corridor encompassing Boston, Philly, New York, Baltimore and Washington D.C.) is inhabited by 50 million people, and has the economic output twice that of Canada. These are complex and diverse regions characterized by human diversity, mixed-use development and a wide range of industries and creative sectors.
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Stepping Back
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The term "home" has various meanings. In the case of animals, it refers to their habitat. For humans, it can mean both "house" (physical dwelling) as well as the general idea we call "home" - i.e., an area or community where we find refuge, shelter, comfort and connection.
In recent years, comfort and connection come from all kinds of places and sources... from the people we know, to the places we go, to how we spend our time, to what we surf, to where we actually "live" and/or work.
Before the industrial revolution, the term "home" was basically synonymous with "house" - i.e., the physical place. It was likely the place we worked, too - i.e., the farm. But in the twentieth century, work became a completely different physical place - a place away from "home" - and away from your "house".
Today, work goes with you. The office is increasingly your home... and home is where you are.
In many ways, it's like a return to the nineteenth century, when work, home and house were all the same place. But this time, there is a very distinct difference: These various life-domains are not only combined - they are all increasingly mobile.
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It started with the mobile phone
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For anyone born after 1985, the idea of communication devices tied to a specific physical address is hard to imagine. A similar trend is happening with the home/house. It's becoming less a function of a specific place as it is becoming a function of where you are, at the time.
Some people are even asking the question, "How do we define where we are when we're there? The article, below, talks about how tablets such as iPads are becoming "extensions" of our bodies. These devices respond before we even give them a conscious command. In a way, they are extending our physical and mental "locations" beyond the place we're actually located.
The new "mobile home" is becoming increasingly like your mobile phone. Small, portable, modular & inexpensive.
One company making such homes is called Tumbleweed, "The Tiny House Company" Imagine your house on wheels wherever you go. New job? New gig? No problem: Have house, will travel. Your house, dog, hamster and you are on your way - in the lead-time of a day.
The Tata Nano House starts at $720 USD - built. (That's seven-hundred-and-twenty-dollars, not $720,000). Seven days to construct. At 1/1,000th the cost of some homes, sure, you'll weigh the purchase carefully - just like you'd weigh the purchase of an iPad - but an iPad purchase doesn't define your life for a 30 year period. Nor should a house.
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What if you need extra space?
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The pub (dare we return to the real "pub" a.k.a. the "public house"?) the coffee shop and other community spaces become your extended home - digitally interconnected and populated with other humans with whom to interact. Extra stuff to deal with or store? eBay, Craig's List: At your service.
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Share, Swap, Switch
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At Korman Communities you can opt for flexible "Apartment Homes" on a short-term rental full-service basis. Part home, part community, part hotel. If you nail a new job that takes you to a different city, no prob. Notify Korman and swap over to another similar Korman unit in that new city. No leases to break. No drama.
With airbnb.com your you can swap/rent homes, apartments, boats or villas across the world. Meanwhile, your place at "home" can be rented by others (also on airbnb.com).
With an average U.S. household spend of $16,000-$17,000 per year on housing (and its associated upkeep) (that's $50/day)... share/swap/rent looks pretty attractive.
And thanks to my friend Aron in Brno (formerly a fellow in Shaker Heights, OH) I now know about CouchSurf
No money is transferred. People share their dwellings with others within the non-profit CouchSurfing community. As they say, "Open your Mind, Open your Home... Open the World". Benefits include couch + connection.
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The net-net
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The house-building/owning patterns of the later half of the 20th century ultimately became unsustainable - as evidenced by the meltdown of '08/'09. The Great Reset points to studies showing that, ironically, regions with better home-ownership stats suffer in other ways, like unemployment. When people are trapped by their homes, they don't have the flexibility to go where their work and skills "work" best. As a result, the region and the collective suffer.
Our economy is increasingly one of ideas, knowledge and service that depend on flexibility and mobility.
We, too, need to be more flexible.
There's no one answer. For some, a farm makes sense. For others, it is a couch. And for many, it's a hybrid. Regardless, we're in an era when choice making becomes key - and choices, indeed, we can make.
Will likely refer further thought (and encourage comments) via our SmartSimpleMobile blog starting with the replication of this very message, there. In the meantime, I am once again compelled to clog your email in-box.
Separately, but related - a reminder of Umair Haque's HBR/blog. He begs similar questions.
Tweet: Craig Arthur James (@CjamesCatStrat) 1/22/12 8:41 AM:
A Facebook friend shared an old video with me recently. It was an archive of a local nightly news broadcast from a Cleveland television station circa ~ 1977.
The newsmen (yes, they were all men) were covering a snow storm. There were a couple guys in the studio, and one was on the scene:
"So, it's really snowing out there isn't it, Fred? Oh yeah, you got that right, it sure is, Jim... lots and lots of snow everywhere. Wow, so lots of snow then? Yeah, snow. Tons of snow. It's really something, the snow is - isn't it..."
The same basic exchange was repeated over and over for about 15 minutes. Did we really need those guys to tell us (over and over) that it was snowing while we were searching for our cars buried under a huge snow drift somewhere? (Not that I remember this point in history, of course ;-)
Our current 24-hour news cycle still seems to perpetuate this habit at times (but faster). My point is, those guys in '77 might have been so mesmerized by the medium (and impressed with themselves) that maybe they missed the whole story.
Fast forward: 2012 and the social web. Might we be so seduced by the mechanisms available to us that we don't quite know why or how to use them? Are we "talking snow" all over the place? We send a video here, tag a photo of a person eating dinner (in the snow) over there, or tweet random/redundant content everywhere. Why?
The amount of stuff that used to take 10,000 years to bounce 'round the world now is exchanged every single day.
Intuitively I think it's all a good thing. But imagine if we took more of this sometimes-random sometimes-redundant hyper-exchanged information, and targeted and tailored it just a wee bit better. For example, there are schools in Nepal that only have a few books (literally). The books are secured under lock and key because they are so scarce and valued.Thus ironically, the resources the kids desperately need aren't necessarily available to them.
I have a friend who's thinking through strategies for the electronic targeting and delivery of certain educational material to those very kids. Sure, there are numerous challenges beginning with the fact that many of the locations don't currently have computers and/or Internet access. But the concepts are relatively simple:
Who needs the info?
What exactly is the info they need?
How can we get them the info? and/or...
How can they find said info without "us"?
The technology we currently have (at most of our fingertips) is truly amazing. But, I think we can do even amazing-er things in this world if we're just a little less intrigued and/or limited by the medium itself, and a bit better at delivering the right content, to the right people, at the right time.
Sure, at times it feels as though we've "cracked the code" on using these technologies effectively - but I think we've only just begun.
This Blog entry is the continuation of a conversation originated in email.
You're invited to join it.
Net-net, it's a discussion about America, the World and the Future... Trivial stuff like that.
Have we become complacent? Have we lost our way? What does the future hold?
SCENARIO:
Read the early portions of the book That Used To Be Us, by Thomas L. Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum
The opening tells a story of Escalat(ors) in the U.S. and Construct(tion) in China. We've fallen behind.
Sent an email to certain folks explaining how the story hit me
Numerous responses ensued via email
Migrated the conversation to this Blog
Responses, to-date, will become blog-post-comments within, if/as commenter(s) approve
Please add comments and share your thoughts
Between meetings and reading email responses, I had a few interesting serendipitous experiences. One of them is briefly described below. After that, you'll find the original message that started this whole thing. Below that, one finds articles by Umair Haque you might find interesting.
AN AMERICAN COFFEE SHOP - AN EXPERIENCE - CLEVELAND, OHIO:
After a couple days of productive and enjoyable meeting(s) with colleagues, I find myself alone (literally alone, as the only customer) in a pretty darn big and rather nice coffee shop, not far from downtown Cleveland, Ohio. It was the peak-peak of the (traditional) work-week (10:00 AM, Wednesday morning).
I'm not saying this represents every coffee shop in America - or even Cleveland. But it made me pause - and think.
I ordered a green tea and asked the young gent behind the register for a receipt. The register's printer wasn't functioning. The young gent asked the manager what to do. She instructed him to create a hand-written receipt. He searched for, and found, a receipt-pad... but discovered there were no receipt forms remaining within. He inquired with the manager, yet again.
...At this point, I said, "Don't worry about it".
I proceeded to settle in for some wireless.
The wireless was down.
Our gent from the register said, "Oh, yeah, I was supposed to bring in my laptop today to figure that out - but I forgot".
Meanwhile, the manager shuffles back and forth a couple times to pop outside for a smoke in a little alcove in front of the coffee shop. She gazes upon a boarded-up crumbling theater across the street.
Plumes of smoke ascended from her as if they originated from her pony-tail (an attempt at creative writing). By this time, another customer walks in, a middle-age woman. She sits by herself and begins work on a crossword puzzle. Shortly thereafter, four other people arrive. It's three older gents and a young woman. As they assemble together, the guys begin to berate the young woman for not having a job, and they expertly highlight her inability to secure one.
What's happening?
ORIGINAL EMAIL MESSAGE 12-19-11:
I'm reading Tom Friedman's & Michael Mandelbaum's "That Used To Be Us". In the first few pages, they share this: Meijiang Convention & Exposition Centre in Tianjin, China. Built from the ground-up in 32 weeks:
In Washington, the Washington Metro system had two (2) broken escalators (21 steps each). It took 24 weeks to repair those 42 steps --- i.e., about the same amount of time it took to build the entire Meijiang Convention Center Complex including countless huge escalators.
Meanwhile, back in DC, an outfit was paid $225K to study/assess the state of the Washington Metro system. (I'd do it for $224K: "Broke" ;-)
The Washington Post reported, "...people are getting used to it" (the condition of the system).
Wow.
Needless to say, this one gets a full read.
As we all have our own version(s) of day-to-day do's that need to "get done" I do wonder what the future holds, in a macro sense... and what we (still) can do about it.
...Just thought I'd help start your day with a headache :-)
Thanks for letting me indulge.
OTHER READING YOU MIGHT FIND RELATED / INTERESTING:
100-ish years ago, "Edison", "Westinghouse" & "Einstein" were the "Gates", "Jobs" and "Sagan" of their time. Those names still roll off our tongues, and big companies still bear their names.
Even though we depend on AC power, wireless communications and clean energy, we don't often think of Nikola Tesla. If it wasn't for him, the iPhone would be the "iHand-write-it, mail-it, and-wait".
Tesla understood and basically invented those technologies in the 19th century. But people thought he was a bit "insane". Not because he had a few personality quirks (today we might call it OCD) but because his ideas, experiments and inventions were so extreme. "Wireless communication?" "Clean energy?" "Impossible!". "The guy is absolutely out of his gourd." Buggy whips were the smarter, safer, practical investment.
But he changed the world.
How do you know if you're onto something so BIG that it might help change the world too?
You make no sense. Your friends and colleagues think you're wacky, unrealistic and "out there". They may even work hard to stop or block you. J.P. Morgan helped slow Tesla's advancing dream of "clean energy, everywhere, for everyone - for free". The Commodore would have none of that. Otherwise, how could there be a "monopoly"? How could the energy business be controlled by a small group of companies, including General Electric (which Morgan helped create through his merger magic). No Nikola, no! We'll have none of that.
You can't help yourself. Tesla was known to work for three days straight without sleep. He was so focused on doing his work that he tore-up a contract that he had with George Westinghouse. That contract would have made him (Tesla) one of the first billionaires on the planet. But he didn't care (about money). He cared about the work. He cared about changing the world.
Intuitive insight. Brain science tells us that the brain is imperfect - but efficient. Our brains have been "filling in the blanks" (inaccurately) for survival reasons, for thousands of years. If you bumped into a prehistoric guy at Starbucks and asked him, "Hey, prehistoric alive-guy, when I saw you running yesterday, was it a) a lion or b) a tiger that almost ate you?" He'd likely answer incorrectly. He may not remember "lion" or "tiger" but his brain knew that he had to run like hell, regardless. Our brains still "know" what to do in a sub-second. However, in our modern society, we've become a bit too prone to stop, plan and analyze. It's as if we stopped, opened our laptop and reviewed the strategic don't-get-eaten plan while a liontiger runs toward us. Chances are your first thoughts are the right ones: Go with it. Trust it. Run like hell!
Today, amazingly, the notion of "clean energy for all, everywhere - for free" is actually here for us. But the "energy" is the energy of ideas, knowledge, culture and information that we can now seek (or share) for almost-free - from anywhere - anytime.
Bumped into a colleague at a coffee shop. Haven't seen her for a month or two. She asked what I was up to.
Being the occasional smart alec (OK, not just occasional) I said, "Fixing the World, you know... the usual". I further explained that I've been busy and haven't had the chance to type-up the plan and send it off to Obama - yet. We chuckled, did the small-talk thing... and went our separate ways. I continued my work & then checked email. This Time Magazine article was in my in-box:
I realized that my joke might not have been far off. I realized that we all have the challenge, the opportunity - and perhaps the responsibility to help reinvent our country - and the World.
Fareed Zakaria always has a way of getting one thinking in global terms, indeed. And with this most recent article, he hits you in the nose with provocative observations and imperatives:
Investment Vs. consumption
Investment in innovation
Investment in people
In the 50's, the U.S. was the only research lab in the World. No longer.
Protectionist economics? Not possible. People & companies will jump on the Net and conduct commerce wherever and with whomever they want.
"America needs radical change - but we have an 18th century system determined to check and balance the absolute power of a monarchy. It is designed for gridlock at a moment when quick and large-scale action is our only hope".
After you read his article, my guess is you'll have different answers to small-talk questions in a coffee shop. Then again, you may have the same answers - but I bet they'll have a different meaning.
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