Welcome to the future. There’s a lot of talk about “change” these days—isn’t there? But this time—this wave of change—is like never before. It’s a time when all of the domains of civilization are changing at the same time, from technology to politics to economics.
It's a turbo-charged period of change we call “compressional acceleration”—a pace of technological change that makes the last 10 years feel like the equivalent of the previous 100. Thus, it makes a single lifetime feel like an 800 year journey through time.
Imagine.
We’d get to meet King Louis XVI and Queen Marie Antoinette plus witness the inventions of the year 2,500—all before we find our mortal shells six feet under.
CC andrew abogado
What to do?
We can think more about how we think. Ironically, it's not about technology. Rather, it's about what technology has done to and is doing to us, and how we cope with and leverage it.
It's about our mindset. Industrial era operational mindsets no longer cut it. It’s a time to be smarter, more flexible and mobile. It’s a time for creativity, ideas, creation and innovation.
It's a good time to be... well, a bit of a Screwball.
Screwballs are good
The screwball pitch changed the game of baseball
Screwball comedies in the 1930′s effectively addressed social issues, and helped us navigate the emotions of the Great Depression
Screwballs are eccentric, eclectic and multi-talented
Screwballism should be spread
The world needs Screwball-ness
Who are some of the thinkers thinking about thinking different about the future?
The definitions of how and where we live, and why - are on the fly.
When I grew up in suburban Cleveland during the 60's and 70's, life was ideal. Surreal ideal. I was an only child (still am). My earliest memories are of a new brick ranch style home - and then a modern split-level.
In my early teens, I tore-up the neighborhood on my banana bike or skateboard, and then graduated to a 10-speed. I had a hamster named Adam (survived by our sweet little dog who's name I won't divulge for self-centric masculinity reasons).
There were backyard fridge-box adventures (gosh, those were the best) and of course there were "my woods" - i.e., wild nature just down the street for my best friend Jeff and me to explore (until, of course, the trees came down so a K-Mart could go up). Heck, we can't all just run around in the woods - we have to buy stuff, right?
A remnant of "My Woods" - A piece of tree taken away - to make way - for K-Mart :-(
We had a TV that looked more like a French Provincial desk than a box of electronics. Outside of the weekly thrill of watching the trash being picked up, the real "main event" was the occasion when humans actually came to our house to fix the desk/TV unit.
Lucky for me, outside of watching a show or two, my Mom, Dad & I talked more than we watched.
Growing up, I learned about the twentieth century dream, which made perfect sense to everyone at that time: School--> More school--> Job --> Better Job --> House --> Bigger House --> Maybe even a Bigger-er house --> Retire.
If one used his/her head, and worked hard, it all worked out.
But not any more.
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Welcome to the 21st century
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As Richard Florida outlines in The Great Reset ...we're living midst an historic reset where the definitions of "work", "play", and "home" are changing forever.
In The Great Reset, Florida explains that we've been through similar economic "resets", and that each one of them have had a major impact on where we live and work. In the 1870's (The "Long Depression") the big shift was rural to urban. After the 1930's (The Great Depression) we experienced the big shift from urban to suburban.
Now, we're experiencing the "mega-regions", where small struggling cities & regions become integrated with larger multi city metropolises. One such mega-region, the so-called Bos-Wash (A corridor encompassing Boston, Philly, New York, Baltimore and Washington D.C.) is inhabited by 50 million people, and has the economic output twice that of Canada. These are complex and diverse regions characterized by human diversity, mixed-use development and a wide range of industries and creative sectors.
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Stepping Back
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The term "home" has various meanings. In the case of animals, it refers to their habitat. For humans, it can mean both "house" (physical dwelling) as well as the general idea we call "home" - i.e., an area or community where we find refuge, shelter, comfort and connection.
In recent years, comfort and connection come from all kinds of places and sources... from the people we know, to the places we go, to how we spend our time, to what we surf, to where we actually "live" and/or work.
Before the industrial revolution, the term "home" was basically synonymous with "house" - i.e., the physical place. It was likely the place we worked, too - i.e., the farm. But in the twentieth century, work became a completely different physical place - a place away from "home" - and away from your "house".
Today, work goes with you. The office is increasingly your home... and home is where you are.
In many ways, it's like a return to the nineteenth century, when work, home and house were all the same place. But this time, there is a very distinct difference: These various life-domains are not only combined - they are all increasingly mobile.
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It started with the mobile phone
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For anyone born after 1985, the idea of communication devices tied to a specific physical address is hard to imagine. A similar trend is happening with the home/house. It's becoming less a function of a specific place as it is becoming a function of where you are, at the time.
Some people are even asking the question, "How do we define where we are when we're there? The article, below, talks about how tablets such as iPads are becoming "extensions" of our bodies. These devices respond before we even give them a conscious command. In a way, they are extending our physical and mental "locations" beyond the place we're actually located.
The new "mobile home" is becoming increasingly like your mobile phone. Small, portable, modular & inexpensive.
One company making such homes is called Tumbleweed, "The Tiny House Company" Imagine your house on wheels wherever you go. New job? New gig? No problem: Have house, will travel. Your house, dog, hamster and you are on your way - in the lead-time of a day.
The Tata Nano House starts at $720 USD - built. (That's seven-hundred-and-twenty-dollars, not $720,000). Seven days to construct. At 1/1,000th the cost of some homes, sure, you'll weigh the purchase carefully - just like you'd weigh the purchase of an iPad - but an iPad purchase doesn't define your life for a 30 year period. Nor should a house.
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What if you need extra space?
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The pub (dare we return to the real "pub" a.k.a. the "public house"?) the coffee shop and other community spaces become your extended home - digitally interconnected and populated with other humans with whom to interact. Extra stuff to deal with or store? eBay, Craig's List: At your service.
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Share, Swap, Switch
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At Korman Communities you can opt for flexible "Apartment Homes" on a short-term rental full-service basis. Part home, part community, part hotel. If you nail a new job that takes you to a different city, no prob. Notify Korman and swap over to another similar Korman unit in that new city. No leases to break. No drama.
With airbnb.com your you can swap/rent homes, apartments, boats or villas across the world. Meanwhile, your place at "home" can be rented by others (also on airbnb.com).
With an average U.S. household spend of $16,000-$17,000 per year on housing (and its associated upkeep) (that's $50/day)... share/swap/rent looks pretty attractive.
And thanks to my friend Aron in Brno (formerly a fellow in Shaker Heights, OH) I now know about CouchSurf
No money is transferred. People share their dwellings with others within the non-profit CouchSurfing community. As they say, "Open your Mind, Open your Home... Open the World". Benefits include couch + connection.
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The net-net
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The house-building/owning patterns of the later half of the 20th century ultimately became unsustainable - as evidenced by the meltdown of '08/'09. The Great Reset points to studies showing that, ironically, regions with better home-ownership stats suffer in other ways, like unemployment. When people are trapped by their homes, they don't have the flexibility to go where their work and skills "work" best. As a result, the region and the collective suffer.
Our economy is increasingly one of ideas, knowledge and service that depend on flexibility and mobility.
We, too, need to be more flexible.
There's no one answer. For some, a farm makes sense. For others, it is a couch. And for many, it's a hybrid. Regardless, we're in an era when choice making becomes key - and choices, indeed, we can make.
The 21st Century is changing what these words mean. It's also changing the word "Entrepreneur".
Wikipedia says that an "Entrepreneur" is a person who makes money through taking risks and accepting full responsibility for outcomes. Okay, that accurately describes many entrepreneurs. But there is a new breed of "free agent" Entrepreneurs coming onto the scene whom I like to call "NEOpreneurs". They aren't just interested in money - and they take on more than financial risk. They risk their reputation - and former definitions of success. They work for what they believe - and not just for business achievement. As Jon Stein, founder of the firm Betterment states, "There’s a noticeable shift in what people value most in their careers. The New York Times studied key words in a sample of commencement speeches last year. The words 'world' and 'love' showed up far more often than 'money' and 'success'."
These observations are a byproduct of other shifts in our society
In the 20th Century, GDP was invented to measure output, growth, production and "more-ness". FDR and his administration invented it as a way to measure the economy after the Great Depression. But what made perfect sense 70 years ago doesn't necessarily make sense today.
GDP is being questioned by many. Most recently, the United Nations joined the conversation with a panel calling for “new ways to measure progress” in advance of the Rio+20 Global Transition 2012 Summit
"Work" - What is it?
I consider a round of golf "play". For Annika Sörenstam, it's serious business - and serious work. Today, more and more workers are redefining what "work" is. They are "black collar" workers (according to Philip Auerswald). They're hyper-connected and on the go - They think differently than workers of the past - They don't accept the historic roles of management and labor - They're innovative and independent - They work whenever and wherever they happen to be - And their office is their smartphone.
There's a whole new lot of them coming on-stream. Soon, three billion people who were formerly excluded from the advances and progress of the last five centuries now have a seat at the information-connected table. Auerswald asserts, "Prosperity in the 21st century won't be about life-long "employment" and ever increasing "consumption" as in the 20th century. Instead, it will be about connecting, creating, contributing, and collaborating in a rapidly evolving world. Intense localization will interact with all-pervasive globalization".
Stein recognizes that money and certain "rules" can motivate - to a point - but only to a point. He chooses to give his employees the freedom they desire to get the work done... when and where they want to get it done. Stein states, "In designing a working environment that would bring out the best qualities in our team, we had to come up with a model to satisfy the demands of a startup while balancing the needs of individuals. The No-Hour Workweek means our team is constantly in contact. Two-thirds of our team takes customer calls on weekends, and our development team frequently works into the wee hours of the morning. We monitor social media, catch up on emails, and work on projects at night and over the weekends, and we’re constantly attending industry and networking events. The No-Hour Workweek also means that our team members can come in at 8, 12, or not at all if they’d prefer to work remotely. It means they can work at the times they’re most productive, make family gatherings, attend to personal commitments, leave early for travel or yoga or drinks with friends."
We knew the 21st century would bring us change. Here it is.
Are you NEOpreneur?
Join NEOtropolis and "What's the Big Idea?" on April 3, 2012 to learn more.
The answer is up - way up... and certainly not "out".
Vertical farming is the idea -- and it can change the landscape of how we produce and consume food.
Regarding the photos, below... both depict Akron, Ohio. Urban is rural. Rural is urban. We can feed those in our respective communities, and we can do so across the world.
There's lots to think about. It takes 2500 gallons of water to produce one pound of beef and it takes 120 gallons of water to produce a single egg. Imagine.
There are all kinds of inefficiencies associated with what we do and how we do it, with respect to food.
But it doesn't have to be that way. There are better ways. The ideal idea is to grow food where people live (versus shipping it to them) and do so without wasting other precious resources. We can seed and feed to the sky - and grow plants without soil or water.
We can do these things. If we decide to do them - together.
NEOtropolis returns from its Spring Break and kicks-off its season "back nine" on March 27th. The show, titled "Taste and Place", explores the forces of technology affecting our production and consumption of food.
The "What's the Big Idea?" segment smacks you with some sobering facts: A billion people are still hungry... 40,000 kids die of starvation each and every day... and 50% of the food we produce is thrown out.
But once again... there is good news if we leverage technology, apply a collective will, and implement visionary ideas. Join NEOtropolis and "What's the Big Idea?" on Tuesday for one of those technology solutions.
Quiz: Which photo depicts Akron, Ohio?
Craig Arthur James 2012
The above are not necessarily the views of NEOtropolis Western Reserve PBS. Rather, the above article is the view of this author related to topics he may discuss as a contributor on NEOtropolis.
This post doesn't refer to some juicy scandal about a president - or even involve trashy talk about a president or presidential candidate (sorry ;-) No, I'm talking about actual trash.
You see, last night I didn't put the trash out because I didn't see the usual neighbor-trash on the curb. I figured no collection in the morning due to the holiday. That was that.
Then, as I left this morning - lo and behold - there was quite a bit of neighbor-trash out at the curb. I thought to myself, "Oh, OK, there must be trash collection after all".
Hummm...
How do we form our opinions and make decisions? Because of observations? Assumptions? Because someone else thinks or does something?
Today, we can make our own informed decisions like never before. We're armed with the information we need when we need it. I could have jumped on the city's website to know the answer instead of guessing or making a decision based on what the neighbors did.
Alert! Is this all I can think about on Presidents' Day? Trash?!
I took some of my own medicine and jumped on a keyboard. A few clicks reminded me about the origin of the holiday. It dates back to the 1880s, when George Washington's birthday was first celebrated as a federal holiday. "Washington's Birthday" was changed to "Presidents' Day" in 1971 - due, in part, to the proximity of Lincoln's birthday in February (Washington is February 22nd and Lincoln is February 12th) - not to mention the fact that retailers in the U.S. already named the holiday "Presidents' Day" for themselves anyway.
To think... I live in a country where I am fortunate enough to have my trash removed for me.
I also live in a country odd enough that the power of retail defines how we celebrate the legacy of our leaders.
Oh: The answer to the trash removal? I guess I'll find out when I get home.
As I write this article on the eve of the NEOtropolis Episode "Phantom Borders", I can't help but reflect on the fact that today, February 6, 2012 the U.S. Embassy closed it's doors in Damascus, and our diplomats race back home to safety.
While Western powers push for a tough UN resolution against Syria - Russia and China veto the Resolution.
Russia, China, The U.S., Saudi Arabia and others... all in a debate over approach, principles and their own interests.
Meanwhile yesterday, 173 million people and 11 billion dollars spell, "Super Bowl".
So: This time, "What's the Big Idea?" isn't so much about a Big Idea as it's a Big (set of) Question(s).
Will likely refer further thought (and encourage comments) via our SmartSimpleMobile blog starting with the replication of this very message, there. In the meantime, I am once again compelled to clog your email in-box.
Separately, but related - a reminder of Umair Haque's HBR/blog. He begs similar questions.
Tweet: Craig Arthur James (@CjamesCatStrat) 1/22/12 8:41 AM:
This Blog entry is the continuation of a conversation originated in email.
You're invited to join it.
Net-net, it's a discussion about America, the World and the Future... Trivial stuff like that.
Have we become complacent? Have we lost our way? What does the future hold?
SCENARIO:
Read the early portions of the book That Used To Be Us, by Thomas L. Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum
The opening tells a story of Escalat(ors) in the U.S. and Construct(tion) in China. We've fallen behind.
Sent an email to certain folks explaining how the story hit me
Numerous responses ensued via email
Migrated the conversation to this Blog
Responses, to-date, will become blog-post-comments within, if/as commenter(s) approve
Please add comments and share your thoughts
Between meetings and reading email responses, I had a few interesting serendipitous experiences. One of them is briefly described below. After that, you'll find the original message that started this whole thing. Below that, one finds articles by Umair Haque you might find interesting.
AN AMERICAN COFFEE SHOP - AN EXPERIENCE - CLEVELAND, OHIO:
After a couple days of productive and enjoyable meeting(s) with colleagues, I find myself alone (literally alone, as the only customer) in a pretty darn big and rather nice coffee shop, not far from downtown Cleveland, Ohio. It was the peak-peak of the (traditional) work-week (10:00 AM, Wednesday morning).
I'm not saying this represents every coffee shop in America - or even Cleveland. But it made me pause - and think.
I ordered a green tea and asked the young gent behind the register for a receipt. The register's printer wasn't functioning. The young gent asked the manager what to do. She instructed him to create a hand-written receipt. He searched for, and found, a receipt-pad... but discovered there were no receipt forms remaining within. He inquired with the manager, yet again.
...At this point, I said, "Don't worry about it".
I proceeded to settle in for some wireless.
The wireless was down.
Our gent from the register said, "Oh, yeah, I was supposed to bring in my laptop today to figure that out - but I forgot".
Meanwhile, the manager shuffles back and forth a couple times to pop outside for a smoke in a little alcove in front of the coffee shop. She gazes upon a boarded-up crumbling theater across the street.
Plumes of smoke ascended from her as if they originated from her pony-tail (an attempt at creative writing). By this time, another customer walks in, a middle-age woman. She sits by herself and begins work on a crossword puzzle. Shortly thereafter, four other people arrive. It's three older gents and a young woman. As they assemble together, the guys begin to berate the young woman for not having a job, and they expertly highlight her inability to secure one.
What's happening?
ORIGINAL EMAIL MESSAGE 12-19-11:
I'm reading Tom Friedman's & Michael Mandelbaum's "That Used To Be Us". In the first few pages, they share this: Meijiang Convention & Exposition Centre in Tianjin, China. Built from the ground-up in 32 weeks:
In Washington, the Washington Metro system had two (2) broken escalators (21 steps each). It took 24 weeks to repair those 42 steps --- i.e., about the same amount of time it took to build the entire Meijiang Convention Center Complex including countless huge escalators.
Meanwhile, back in DC, an outfit was paid $225K to study/assess the state of the Washington Metro system. (I'd do it for $224K: "Broke" ;-)
The Washington Post reported, "...people are getting used to it" (the condition of the system).
Wow.
Needless to say, this one gets a full read.
As we all have our own version(s) of day-to-day do's that need to "get done" I do wonder what the future holds, in a macro sense... and what we (still) can do about it.
...Just thought I'd help start your day with a headache :-)
Thanks for letting me indulge.
OTHER READING YOU MIGHT FIND RELATED / INTERESTING:
100-ish years ago, "Edison", "Westinghouse" & "Einstein" were the "Gates", "Jobs" and "Sagan" of their time. Those names still roll off our tongues, and big companies still bear their names.
Even though we depend on AC power, wireless communications and clean energy, we don't often think of Nikola Tesla. If it wasn't for him, the iPhone would be the "iHand-write-it, mail-it, and-wait".
Tesla understood and basically invented those technologies in the 19th century. But people thought he was a bit "insane". Not because he had a few personality quirks (today we might call it OCD) but because his ideas, experiments and inventions were so extreme. "Wireless communication?" "Clean energy?" "Impossible!". "The guy is absolutely out of his gourd." Buggy whips were the smarter, safer, practical investment.
But he changed the world.
How do you know if you're onto something so BIG that it might help change the world too?
You make no sense. Your friends and colleagues think you're wacky, unrealistic and "out there". They may even work hard to stop or block you. J.P. Morgan helped slow Tesla's advancing dream of "clean energy, everywhere, for everyone - for free". The Commodore would have none of that. Otherwise, how could there be a "monopoly"? How could the energy business be controlled by a small group of companies, including General Electric (which Morgan helped create through his merger magic). No Nikola, no! We'll have none of that.
You can't help yourself. Tesla was known to work for three days straight without sleep. He was so focused on doing his work that he tore-up a contract that he had with George Westinghouse. That contract would have made him (Tesla) one of the first billionaires on the planet. But he didn't care (about money). He cared about the work. He cared about changing the world.
Intuitive insight. Brain science tells us that the brain is imperfect - but efficient. Our brains have been "filling in the blanks" (inaccurately) for survival reasons, for thousands of years. If you bumped into a prehistoric guy at Starbucks and asked him, "Hey, prehistoric alive-guy, when I saw you running yesterday, was it a) a lion or b) a tiger that almost ate you?" He'd likely answer incorrectly. He may not remember "lion" or "tiger" but his brain knew that he had to run like hell, regardless. Our brains still "know" what to do in a sub-second. However, in our modern society, we've become a bit too prone to stop, plan and analyze. It's as if we stopped, opened our laptop and reviewed the strategic don't-get-eaten plan while a liontiger runs toward us. Chances are your first thoughts are the right ones: Go with it. Trust it. Run like hell!
Today, amazingly, the notion of "clean energy for all, everywhere - for free" is actually here for us. But the "energy" is the energy of ideas, knowledge, culture and information that we can now seek (or share) for almost-free - from anywhere - anytime.
Bumped into a colleague at a coffee shop. Haven't seen her for a month or two. She asked what I was up to.
Being the occasional smart alec (OK, not just occasional) I said, "Fixing the World, you know... the usual". I further explained that I've been busy and haven't had the chance to type-up the plan and send it off to Obama - yet. We chuckled, did the small-talk thing... and went our separate ways. I continued my work & then checked email. This Time Magazine article was in my in-box:
I realized that my joke might not have been far off. I realized that we all have the challenge, the opportunity - and perhaps the responsibility to help reinvent our country - and the World.
Fareed Zakaria always has a way of getting one thinking in global terms, indeed. And with this most recent article, he hits you in the nose with provocative observations and imperatives:
Investment Vs. consumption
Investment in innovation
Investment in people
In the 50's, the U.S. was the only research lab in the World. No longer.
Protectionist economics? Not possible. People & companies will jump on the Net and conduct commerce wherever and with whomever they want.
"America needs radical change - but we have an 18th century system determined to check and balance the absolute power of a monarchy. It is designed for gridlock at a moment when quick and large-scale action is our only hope".
After you read his article, my guess is you'll have different answers to small-talk questions in a coffee shop. Then again, you may have the same answers - but I bet they'll have a different meaning.
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